NoCoast Grant Hughes Elite Moderator Location: Whitefish, MT Join Date: 01/11/2006 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 6,818 Rally Car: BMW |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
I don't think any of us are immune from this at times. "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude." I do see alot of it in rallying though. The scary thing is when a person severely afflicted pass their "knowledge" down to others. First heard of while reading this article. http://thefederalist.com/2014/01/17/the-death-of-expertise/ I realized today that this coming 100AW, which I am attending to crew for a friend who will be driving his first rally ever, will be the 10 year anniversary of my first rally. Grant Hughes |
fliz Chad Eixenberger Ultra Moderator Location: Grafton, WI Join Date: 02/01/2007 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 484 Rally Car: 1988 VW Golf #687 |
I think it is closely tied to the "Karate Kid Effect".
http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html |
john vanlandingham John Vanlandingham Professional Moderator Location: Ford Asylum, Sleezattle, WA Join Date: 12/20/2005 Age: Fossilized Posts: 14,152 Rally Car: Saab 96 V4 |
That is a good article you linked to. It mentions something that 30 years after having done it I encounter in magazines and books and is very interesting being in this sport full of dreamers and children dreaming about "their career"---from in front of a keyboard... He mentioned the "10,000 hour rule". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_%28book%29
Some---who evidently can't read, criticize this idea but failed to see where the guy stresses and makes clear it's "10,000 hours of dedicated practice beyond the comfort level" Brings us to this light review:
John Vanlandingham Sleezattle, WA, USA Vive le Prole-le-ralliat www.rallyrace.net/jvab CALL +1 206 431-9696 Remember! Pacific Standard Time is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time. |
Nubby Tony Wells Godlike Moderator Location: Omaha, NE Join Date: 07/08/2008 Age: Possibly Wise Posts: 191 Rally Car: SP Evo IX #112 |
If you want to read that in the long form here it is: https://www.math.ucdavis.edu/~suh/metacognition.pdf |
NoCoast Grant Hughes Elite Moderator Location: Whitefish, MT Join Date: 01/11/2006 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 6,818 Rally Car: BMW |
John, 10,000 on average. Meaning some might get there n 3,000 hours, while others will never. Doesn't discount the idea of deliberate practice.
Here's reference for some more light reading. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/freakonomics/pdf/DeliberatePractice(PsychologicalReview).pdf Grant Hughes |
john vanlandingham John Vanlandingham Professional Moderator Location: Ford Asylum, Sleezattle, WA Join Date: 12/20/2005 Age: Fossilized Posts: 14,152 Rally Car: Saab 96 V4 |
Grant I was saying I've read some dismissals of the whole idea in some "general reading" type things where they say "Oh all you have to do is do anything for 10,000 hours and presto you're an expert...I don't think so and here's why blah blah............" And the feeling I've gotten reading what the guy wrote and numerous reference to him in other books (we have almost 9 and almost 7 girlies and we wonder what basic skills we should try and nourish) seem to suggest "a minimum of....beyond comfort level" Of course some things are ultimately easier to achieve some level of "mastery" and then there is the question of what one considers "mastery" John Vanlandingham Sleezattle, WA, USA Vive le Prole-le-ralliat www.rallyrace.net/jvab CALL +1 206 431-9696 Remember! Pacific Standard Time is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time. |
NoCoast Grant Hughes Elite Moderator Location: Whitefish, MT Join Date: 01/11/2006 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 6,818 Rally Car: BMW |
Fully agree John.
I have a sister that was one of the top 100 volleyball players in the nation. I experienced first hand the level of commitment it takes to be a top athlete. I believe that same commitment is required for success in career or business. It's also why I say the focus on multi-tasking as a skill is so detrimental. You end up with people like me that do a bunch of different shit but none with enough focus to be a master at it. My day today so far had me doing what is basically analytical chemistry, followed by manuscript writing for a medical journal, then did a bunch of what is essential shipping and receiving, now on to web design, and photography (built a light box for product pics) and later I have bowling in league and then after I'm going to do homework, PhD level statistics/measure theory. Oh yeah, throw in some rally shit always on my mind, trying to sell a caged car project and communicating with former customer about adding some stuff to his cage for him, etc. Grant Hughes |
derek Derek Bottles Super Moderator Location: Lopez Island/ Seattle WA Join Date: 12/20/2005 Age: Possibly Wise Posts: 853 Rally Car: Past: 323, RX2, GTI. Next up M3 ? |
Good concepts.
I think many activities inform other activities so multi taking is not per say a problem but in all cases focus and pushing limits are very important. The more I know the more I know I know less than I thought I knew. In the long run reality always wins. |
Pete Pete Remner Godlike Moderator Location: Cleveland, Ohio Join Date: 01/11/2006 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 2,022 |
The corollary is that the more you learn, the more you realize that there's so much you don't know. Or, "True knowledge is in knowing that you know nothing."
("That's US, dude!" Pete Remner Cleveland, Ohio 1984 RX-7 (rallycross thing) 1978 Silence is golden, but duct tape is silver. |
bknblk2 Tony Wood Super Moderator Location: Wichita Join Date: 02/02/2009 Age: Midlife Crisis Posts: 181 Rally Car: 83 Citation "Oskar" |
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john vanlandingham John Vanlandingham Professional Moderator Location: Ford Asylum, Sleezattle, WA Join Date: 12/20/2005 Age: Fossilized Posts: 14,152 Rally Car: Saab 96 V4 |
That's why i say in our little sport: In the and of blind men, a one eyed man is King" And spell it "ex-spurt" And the truth is you don't even need 5% more knowledge, you just need to believe you do, and have some real serious heels for digging in when somebody says "wait, you have a rule and hundreds of people have (after wondering and then calling and grovelling or begging or sucking somebodys ego/cock---metaphorically I imagine) been given "waivers"/ er Duh. John Vanlandingham Sleezattle, WA, USA Vive le Prole-le-ralliat www.rallyrace.net/jvab CALL +1 206 431-9696 Remember! Pacific Standard Time is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time. Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/30/2014 10:00AM by john vanlandingham. |
Creech Scott Creech Ultra Moderator Location: Jane, MO Join Date: 12/02/2012 Age: Possibly Wise Posts: 415 Rally Car: Audi 90 Quattro (WIP) |
Congratulations: You have just defined the American Political Kleptocracy..... Parfois, on fait pas semblant! I am: I know: I am from: Nobody. Nothing. Nowhere. |
john vanlandingham John Vanlandingham Professional Moderator Location: Ford Asylum, Sleezattle, WA Join Date: 12/20/2005 Age: Fossilized Posts: 14,152 Rally Car: Saab 96 V4 |
Ah but there are klepto-crats and then there are real kleptos. The real ones keep on stealing and hoarding even when they have hundred of millions.. John Vanlandingham Sleezattle, WA, USA Vive le Prole-le-ralliat www.rallyrace.net/jvab CALL +1 206 431-9696 Remember! Pacific Standard Time is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time. |
b00sted David Barrett Ultra Moderator Location: Chicago, IL Join Date: 10/21/2011 Age: Settling Down Posts: 216 |
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