SEANT Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speaking of old versus new ...
>
> The big advantage of modern engine management is
> that it allows better control of the power curve.
> This has allowed, along with other changes,
> engines to develop more power, both torque and
> horse power and spread that power out. This has
> given the advantage of being able to ad more gears
> to the transmission, and this is what has led to
> better mileage.
>
> Since the engine is producing more torque down
> low the vehicle runs down the hi-way at much lower
> RPM, using less fuel due to the lower RPM but
> powering the taller gearing due to the torque
> increase.
>
> Most engines have not gained or rather decreased
> fuel consumption by that much from the engine
> management system, rather used the fuel to improve
> power output and gearing has been able to take
> advantage of the power gains.
>
> This can be validated if one starts spinning the
> engine higher RPM and or shifting down and running
> same speeds, fuel consumption of course increases
> ...
>
> As always IMHO
>
> SEAN TENNIS
> SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
> SAAB 99, SAAB 850


Last year we had a Chevy Trailblazer with the 4.2 inline 6. The engine was just shy of 300hp. Got about 19-20mpg. You did have to spin it up a bit to get the power but it was there. When we were kids a comparable carbed 6 would have maybe 150 hp, run like crap cold, not much better warm, use a quart of oil every 1500 miles and die at 80K miles.

I don't think quality didn't kill Detroit, the average consumer has no real way to track failure rates. They may get mad at Ford but they'll just go buy Chevy or Chrysler. Not to mention the quality is actually way better nowadays than 20 years ago.

Credit crunch, repeated news broadcats telling us how bad it is, presidential election, gas prices all had a big hand .

Detroit does need to clean house, management and union both. There will always be a point of no or slow growth and that has to be better planned for. Around here things are still ok, I have several customers looking at new rigs right now. If the bad news would quit for a while I think things would start bouncing back.

Lurch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My parents have a large FWD Lincoln Continental.
> 32 valve fuel injected V8 sitting sideways in the
> engine bay. They do a lot of long distance
> driving, going to music festivals from Nashville
> to Chicago, etc. They drove it out to Pikes Peak
> when we ran the hillclimb and they took off from
> there for the Canadian Rockies.
>
> The car gets 32mpg. No exaggeration. They keep
> meticulous records. Dad doesn't like to let me
> drive it when I come home, however, because he
> knows the average will come down. In his
> words..."this thing is cheaper to own than a
> Prius. And who the hell wants an ugly Prius??"
>
> The stinkin' Linkin' (ugly as it is, in my eyes)
> seats 4 adults comfortably for long trips (Missy
> and I took Pop to the Can-Am reunion at Road
> America last summer, and I sat in the back seat
> (I'm 6'4" surfacing a truck cab for International
> for half the trip.)
>
> The new Taurus coming out has a performance option
> with a twin-turbo V6.
>
> The assumption that the technology at US car
> companies has not changed is flat wrong.
>
> It's awful hard for folks to live down the sins of
> decades past. But I encourage people to go to the
> nearest large new car auto show when in town and
> walk right from vehicle to vehicle. Try to free
> your mind of all preconceptions...forget brands.
> Crawl underneath them. Look under the hood. Get
> inside. Lay your hands on the controls and flick
> the switches. Grab ahold of the trim and try to
> make it squeak. Read the spec sheets to learn
> what the differences are in drive train, etc. You
> will come away with some interesting perspectives.
>
>
> For certain there will be standouts. But compare
> market segment to market segment, even car/truck
> segments you aren't interested in (you'll be less
> biased by brand when looking more objectively).
>
> I'll let you know a secret. I've been working in
> design studios for auto companies for a while.
> They ALL want to be "best in class" in every
> segment they tackle. The studios bring in ALL the
> competitive cars in a market class, when designing
> a new model, for benchmarking. They determine
> which cars stand out for all kinds of different
> criteria...then try to beat them.
>
> Benchmarking doesn't just happen on the studio
> floor, either. There are "ride and drives" where
> a cross section of the company's employees drives
> the entire competition fleet of cars along with
> the development model to compare and contrast all
> facets of the driving experience.
>
> And then there are hoist reviews. I love hoist
> reviews. It's like a performance.
>
> The companies buy a competitor's car or truck,
> take it in to a large shop with a hoist, and let
> everyone pick and prod it from all angles. But
> they are just getting started! They then tear it
> apart piece by piece, cataloging parts, processes,
> suppliers, etc. And they INVITE anyone in the
> design/engineering groups to come and watch/take
> part. I signed up for the email invitations for
> these, because you can learn so much about the
> design and processes used at different car
> companies from hoist reviews. When the car/truck
> is completely dismantled, it's typically chopped
> up if folks from say chassis eng. want to see how
> certain parts were formed etc. Ultimately, it
> get's scrapped in the name of benchmarking.
>
> And this doesn't happen at just one company! It
> happens at Ford, GM, Hyundai, BMW, Audi, Honda,
> Toyota, etc.!
>
> So please. If you like to sit in your own world
> and think that Detroit is still cranking out Olds
> Delta 88s, please...just go to a show with a clear
> mind and see for yourself. I guarantee you, you
> will find a few turds...from places all over the
> world. But you'll find some very good cars and
> trucks from all over the world, too.
>
>
> Lurch
> Eric Burmeister
> The west coast...of Michigan

Great post Eric!

Toyota's entry in to large trucks is an interesting, in my view, venture. Toyota tried very hard to match or beat the competition on all performance capabilities. The one that would have probably sold more trucks than any other is mileage and here Toyota failed to improve. A truck getting 5 MPG better while being competitive in the other areas would have been winner.

---

As always IMHO

SEAN TENNIS KF7JJR
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
SAAB 99, SAAB 850
SAAB V4, SAAB 99T

SEANT Wrote:

> Toyota's entry in to large trucks is an
> interesting, in my view, venture. Toyota tried
> very hard to match or beat the competition on all
> performance capabilities. The one that would have
> probably sold more trucks than any other is
> mileage and here Toyota failed to improve. A
> truck getting 5 MPG better while being competitive
> in the other areas would have been winner.

I agree...NOW. Bear in mind that every model you see on the showroom floor today was planned at least 3 years ago. Three years ago, the F150 was the best selling vehicle in the world. Period. Why do you think Toyota's racing in circles in the southland? Truck sales. The Furd vs. Chebby battles of yesteryear weren't about selling Escorts and Cavaliers...they were about selling F150s and Silverados!

Trucks are intriguing..and fun to look at at the auto shows, because you CAN crawl underneath them. Go look at the F150 and the Tundra and the Silverado and the Titan with a critical eye. I have. I won't give my thoughts here, because I want you to make your OWN decisions based on your own observations.

I was fortunate enough to be able to go to the North American show most years on supplier day...gotta get there at 7am, and you get a few hours before it opens up to the public. Lots of people walking around with digital calipers, tape measures, etc. But other years I have gotten down on the floor looking under Volvos and Subarus and Audis and everything else during regular show hours with lots of people looking at me. It gets the booth keeper's attention.

Auto show flunkie-"Can I help you?"

Me- "Probably not."

ASF-"Are you interested in the new XYZ Shitball LE?"

me- "no, just appreciating what your engineers have done down here."

ASF-"Oh...well, take your time."

Me- "Thanks, I will."

Go with a friend. It makes you look less like a kook if you have an accomplice.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan

Lurch Wrote:
> Bear in mind that every model you
> see on the showroom floor today was planned at
> least 3 years ago. Three years ago, the F150 was
> the best selling vehicle in the world. Period.


BTW...this is the reason Ford is in better shape than GM or Chrysler, IMO.

They got shook and read the tea leaves a few years ago. Billy swallowed hard and stepped down from the family throne and got Boeing boy in there to turn it around.

Most importantly...they CONCEDED that they are NOT going to be the same car company they were in the past. They conceded #2 (and now #1) to Toyota and realized that they had to shrink to meet the market demand and, more importantly, the world oversupply.

I can tell you from a personal perspective that it was painful. They had european platforms that could be sold here. We took some of those platforms and designed and modeled full size proposals for the NA market. Some of these designs were really, really nice vehicles.

In the end, they decided to federalize the existing euro designs. Personally painful, yes, as many, many good designers and modelers were fired, including yours truly. But it was the right thing to do. Get those cars into the market as fast as possible. Get rid of the excess people.

I'm a little worried about the 2nd generation of cars that will be coming out after this next generation...the team of product creators is greatly diminished...and you live and die by your products. But perhaps the shrunken force reflects the shrunken line of vehicles we'll see from them in the future. Or perhaps they'll build it back up after the storm passes...if they don't die in the eye of it.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan

Re: Sprinter/Transporter.

Ford was really close to bringing the Transit van over here. They had the thing nearly all federalized when they pulled the plug. Lots of mules still in Dearborn.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2009 12:01PM by Lurch.

starion887 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Financial shell games don't provide any
> lasting
> > wealth.
>
> Shell games. I agree, But finance is not totally a
> loser. Making loans and providing insurance does
> not produce new wealth, per se, but it does accrue
> wealth to the loaners/insurers. The UK grew a lot
> of their wealth in the late 19th century and into
> the 20th century by big finance. But, one is shut
> out of getting the wealth of some many activities
> if one does not have wealth building in a wide
> range of areas.

I'll admit I'm no financial wizard, Mark, but I just don't see how selling money over and over again earns anything in regard to real wealth. It's just rebranding, repackaging and passing it on...until it crashes...which it just did.

Seems to me that if you aren't mining anything, aren't refining anything, and aren't making anything from raw materials into something of more value, you are a leech on the system.

As a society creates more goods, it can afford more leeches, and that's okay, but a nation can't CONSUME it's way to profitability. Can it?

Furthermore, the insurance racket is the biggest legal gambling institution in the world.

Oversimplistic? Perhaps. I'm eager to learn if you can explain different.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2009 12:22PM by Lurch.

I gained some hope with Ford bring the Fiesta over. Hopefully they can keep the price point low on it. Though I've lost some of it based upon who they seem to be chosing for the Fiesta Movement program.

---

Grant Hughes

Yes - I also had reservations about current American made stuff until I bought a 2004 Harley Sporster 1200R. i bought it "knowing" it'd be technically POS but bought it anyway for image and looks.
What a suprice: It turned to be a GREAT bike! Way better than my Suzuki before and better than Honda after it. Harley had very nice engine (how smooth that carb works is a miracle), good handling (except for poor bias tires), great brakes and very good gas milage. The gas milage beats all imported, including Japanese! This is tested and proven by major magazines.
The only thing I didn't like was very clunky, primitive gearbox. That's it. That was corrected in 2006 and that's the year I plan to buy again. Ladies? Yes, they like Harley guys..
So, Eric's right - American cars are better, too. They just don't have models I want. They seem to stock bread and butter models and colours and try to sell them as potatis.
American car dealer's salesmen are idiots as well. The way they do business piss me off every time. They know absolutely nothing about technical and have non power to close the deal. They make you to hop to different cubicle 2-3 times where an other idiot try to BS some more discarding what was spoken with the first idiot. And I would be the easiest customer; Just give me what I want, I pay and I'm out of here. I've walked out many times saying: " I don't wanna deal with Walmart greeter, I'm here to buy a car." Sometimes I retaliate and burn rubber during test drive! I love to see when THEY get pissed off..

---

- RWD rocks -

Harley is an example of getting things right. After AMF, they asked for gov't protection. Import tariffs, etc. Hired new marketing and design. Fixed their product and designed new product FINALLY realizing their market...a niche. They are in the lifestyle business, not the motorcycle business.

After several years they asked for the protections to be removed. Didn't need them anymore. Can compete with imports because they found their own niche.

You can say that the Big3 tried that tack as well, with the truck and retro-muscle market. The '08 gas crunch kicked 'em in the nads.

The credit freeze hurt EVERYONE (Toyota's hurting too), but GM and Chrys. were starting at a lower level when it hit.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan

I've said a lot on this thread. Just want to add one more thing about the auto industry.

There is a GAP between what the general public THINKS is the market and what the market actually is.

If people didn't want SUV's then why did Lexus/Toyota, Infinity/Nissan, BMW, Acura/Honda, Audi/VW, Hyundai, Mazda, Subaru, and (gasp) even PORSCHE scramble and invest LOTS of capital to get the products designed, built, and into the US dealers?

Why did Toyota and Nissan bust their asses to build a full size pickup?

They followed what the market wanted.

Look at the sales figures through 2007. Even as pundits said the market wanted smaller cars, the numbers didn't tell the story. Til we got a gas scare followed by an economic collapse.

Again, not defending them. It seems common sense to me that if we're at war in the major oil producing parts of the world, it's pretty likely that gas prices could skyrocket at any time and hedge cars should be built for that event a la Prius.

B3 hedge cars sucked. (For that matter, so does the Prius, but it was the closest thing to what the media saw as an ideal...in the right spot at the right time with no competition. In a land of blind men, the one-eyed man is king.)

They just got their Camry busters done (Fusion line and Malibu line) when the poo hit the fan.

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan

"The gas milage beats all imported, including Japanese! This is tested and proven by major magazines."

I doubt that a 1200cc carburated Harley gets better mileage than a 1200cc fuel injected BMW.

I may be biased being a BMW motorcycle owner.

But the 3 year unlimited mileage standard BMW warranty is difficult to beat, and the injection very efficient.

What sort of standard warranty does your Harley come with ? :-)

Morten2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "The gas milage beats all imported, including
> Japanese! This is tested and proven by major
> magazines."
>
> I doubt that a 1200cc carburated Harley gets
> better mileage than a 1200cc fuel injected BMW.
>
> I may be biased being a BMW motorcycle owner.
>
> But the 3 year unlimited mileage standard BMW
> warranty is difficult to beat, and the injection
> very efficient.
>
> What sort of standard warranty does your Harley
> come with ? :-)
>

I was going to reply to the Harley thing and add some BMW comments, having had one of each, the 1200 Harley got 7-8 MPG better, and the gearbox is less clunky then the 1100 fuel injected BMW. Both have good attribute and really one is the other countries version of the other in so many ways. Harley fake/crap chrome was appalling, pitting after 2 years in an open door garage -- fun to ride but aggravated back issues (still had engine solid mounted). Like riding the BMW too, but I always consider it to be very brutal to ride compared to the Aprilia Caponord, smoother ride, smoother gear box and better handling then both and mileage on par with the Harley.

Both brands are very over priced.

Harley is suffering sales for several years, that is one reason why they acquired MV Augusta, hasn't helped much, but is another door into Europe. Inside studies by Harley show the age of rider going up as the younger crowd goes with crotch rockets, this may change with age as back issues creep in on the riders. The one thing Harley is doing is focusing on and picking up the female riders ... Harley really needs to improve reliability and dealer service, when the bike has issues they need to step-up and provide loaners. All warranty parts have to be ordered and the poor SOB is without his ride for weeks -- A friend uses his for daily transport and he's just about had enough of the down time, and missed trips, His previous one had issues too -- I'd say he's given the a fair chance!

---

As always IMHO

SEAN TENNIS KF7JJR
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
SAAB 99, SAAB 850
SAAB V4, SAAB 99T

Ouch.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123853762031875371.html

---

Lurch
Eric Burmeister
The west coast...of Michigan

Lurch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ouch.
>
> Lurch
> Eric Burmeister
> The west coast...of Michigan


Taking a quick brake from looking at market forcast.

Notice that in my essay that not once did I say anything about the quality of the product - The product must be OK as in 2007 they sold plenty of it to willing buyers.

Declining Demand is, I think, the hardest thing to deal with in running a business.

---

In the long run reality always wins.

Lurch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I'll admit I'm no financial wizard, Mark, but I
> just don't see how selling money over and over
> again earns anything in regard to real wealth.
> It's just rebranding, repackaging and passing it
> on...until it crashes...which it just did.
>
> Seems to me that if you aren't mining anything,
> aren't refining anything, and aren't making
> anything from raw materials into something of more
> value, you are a leech on the system.
>
> As a society creates more goods, it can afford
> more leeches, and that's okay, but a nation can't
> CONSUME it's way to profitability. Can it?
>
> Furthermore, the insurance racket is the biggest
> legal gambling institution in the world.
>
> Oversimplistic? Perhaps. I'm eager to learn if
> you can explain different.
>
> Lurch
> Eric Burmeister
> The west coast...of Michigan
>
Nor am I, Lurch. But I'll try in my own simple-minded way. BTW, running a business as your only means of a living and having to meet cashflow, payroll, and face risks is the best teacher of this.

Take $100, loan it and get $105 back. Do it over an over and large masses, you you are starting to ACCRUE wealth. Note I said accrue wealth, not create it. You can call it leeching, but consider this fictitious (but I am very sure a very real) scenario:
Ford needs to get new body dies but a dip in sales runs them low on cash with all the other stuff they need to keep buying, electric bills to pay, payroll to meet, etc. They get a loan for a few tens of millions of $$, get the dies, keep producing, get the new car body on the market. Ford paid over $1M in interest short term, BUT kept product going out the door and was ready to go for the new model year, did not interrupt incoming revenue, AND WAS IN POSITION TO MAKE MUCHO DINERO WHEN THE SLOWDOWN ENDED and they were producing the new sleeker Macho X20. So this loan service had good value to Ford, and the loan company made dough and Ford did much better than without the loan.
Apply this to keeping a mining operation running smoothly, keeping the ships moving to get the ore to the smelters, keeping the trains rolling to get the steel to the finish mill, and the avialablilty of business credit can effect and ENABLE productive wealth creation all donw the line.
Those providing the capital from the finance industry are enabling a more productive and steady economy. This sounds oversimple, but it happens over and over in just this simple way. (As well in much more complex ways about which I have no clue!)

And as a counter example: I DON'T want to pay interest in running our small business; I do not have the biz confidnce to make some modeslty risky moves. So we have slowly built cash reserves to handle projects of certain sizes. In doing this, the company has had slow growth, is still limited in scope as to what we can do, and I cannot hire extra people as a result of my 'no borrowing' decision. AND, if we miraculously found ourselves in the position to invent the 2009 equivalent of the transistor, and did not do so because I did not ever borrow, the world would be at a loss in the future. (And I would cry almost as much as selling that '65 GTO convertible years ago!)


INSURANCE: Rally is a perfect example of a simple but perfectly good reason to have an insurance industry. No sanctioning body or organizer in their right minds would run the present day risk of personal or corporate financial disaster by running a rally without a large insurance policy, written to make the insurers face the big risks and to be the big target in a tort action. It costs, BUT IT ENABLES RALLIES. The same applies for many. or most, business activities; Lloyd's is famous for their shipping insurance which made it more financially palatible for prospective trading companies to take the risks of ship-trading in the past centuries. Britain was very much boosted along in their world trading activities in the past due to their advanced (for the times) insurance system.

Who their right mind would make safety harnesses, small children's toys, peanut butter, or many other things without liability insurance? Insurance enables many good things in a risky (read: litigious or dangerous or real-weather) world (ever hear of crop insurance?), so it is a valuable service in ENABLING the creation of wealth by very strongly mitigating risks for those actually involved in the wealth creation activites. The only other way to adequately make the biz risks acceptable without insurance is to wait to start that risky venture unitl very large cash reserves are accumulated. Most times, that point is never reached. How many rallies would we have if each orgainzer or sanctioning body had to wait to accumulate $5M or $10M in cash reserves before ever holding their first rally?

Well, I am not an expert but this all seems pretty clear to me at least! And 'consumption' has no direct connection that I can see to finance and insurance in this context.

Regards,
Mark B.





Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2009 09:35PM by starion887.