Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!

Did some crunching. Data from 2010-2013 RA national season. *

100% of all events had at least one of the 1st 3 cars out finish on the podium.
62% of all events had two of the 1st 3 cars out finish on the podium.
14% of all events had ALL of the first 3 cars out finish on the podium.
5% of all events had the the same finishing top 3 as the starting order.

28% of all events had the same winner as the 1st car out (zero in the last year)! Additionally, if you started 1st, you had an overall chance of DNFing equally at 28%! And a 24% chance of not landing on the podium when finishing. So: a combined 57% chance of winning, or crashing out. Go big or go home, right?

If you started in the 1st 3 cars in this timeframe, you had an overall 15% chance of DNFing in this time period.
If 1st on the road, a 28% DNF rate!
If 2nd on the road, a 10% DNF rate.
If 3rd on the road, a 5% DNF rate.

General observations:

In 2010, 60% of the people starting in the 1st 3 positions finished on the OA podium.
* 2 1st car people finished on the podium. Both at 1st OA.
In 2011, 66% of the people starting in the 1st 3 positions finished on the OA podium.
* 3 1st car people finished on the podium. 2 at 1st OA and 1 at 2nd.
In 2012, 73% of the people starting in the 1st 3 positions finished on the OA podium.
* 4 1st car people finished on the podium. 2 at 1st, 1 and 2nd, and 1 at 3rd.
In 2013, 55% of the people starting in the 1st 3 positions finished on the OA podium.
* ONE 1st car position finished on the podium... at 3rd.


* excluding Oregon Trail. It appears that all Oregon Trail events use a 100% reversed start order.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 02/13/2014 11:06PM by EricW.

Oregon uses reversed for Friday only. Back to regular on Saturday/Sunday.

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Grant Hughes

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Anders Green

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czwalga
Those guys are so close, the dust advantage pretty much decides the rally.

If this were true (and I don't know if it is, or not) then there should be a very noticeable mathematical correlation between start order and finish position for the top three.

If there is, then this will be an interesting improvement.

If there is not, then this is the worst kind of rules meddling and lobbying.

Anders

I'd say that the extreme dust saw at oregon last year year was a HUGE advantage for block being first on the road. Maybe block would have won anyway, but there's no way in those conditions lestage and higgins had a chance. They are close enough to matter.

Thats why if its someone like yeoman, who is most likely not fast enough to threaten the top of the podium even with the advantage goes first; he's happy, and the 3-4 top guys are also happy cause not one of them have a huge dust advantage.

Is it possible that Statistics could save Rally?

---

Parfois, on fait pas semblant!

I am:
I know:
I am from:

Nobody.
Nothing.
Nowhere.

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czwalga
Thats why if its someone like yeoman, who is most likely not fast enough to threaten the top of the podium even with the advantage goes first; he's happy, and the 3-4 top guys are also happy cause not one of them have a huge dust advantage.

An interesting outcome I see is a cycle where the only way to get fast enough to be in the seeded draw is to be the rabbit, and you have a great rally and DO get on the podium, which then knocks you back down into the dust.

Doesn't really matter though, angels on the head of a pin. It's a rule that attempts to change the outcome for THE FIRST GUY on the road. It applies to almost no one. I pity the stewards, who are bound to be bombarded with inquiries and protests about how the rabbit should or shouldn't be invoked, by people who will or won't be impacted by it at that particular rally.

Anders

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Grassroots rally. It's what I think about.

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czwalga



I'd say that the extreme dust saw at oregon last year year was a HUGE advantage for block being first on the road. Maybe block would have won anyway, but there's no way in those conditions lestage and higgins had a chance. They are close enough to matter.

Ken didn't win Oregon Trail. David did.

As for the rule, while I applaud the desire to try and add some equality, the fact that we are constantly being sold on making everything safer, combined with being told that the fastest guys (those in the seeded draw) need things like 2 minute gaps in start order, due to the dust and it's negative effect on both competition and safety, it seems ridiculous that we are now going to add a slower car to position one on the road, specifically to kick up dust...

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-Brian

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Creech
Is it possible that Statistics could save Rally?

Looking at Eric's statistics...I hope Yoeman has a strong crash budget this year.


Instead of a rabbit...they should have just had a seeded draw for every stage. Top guys get to make sure they get into the correct order between check-in and the start line.

I'm curious of course, that's why I ask questions.
I am also not now or ever been just of this culture or language or customs so many things confuse me and I see or hear things in the mainstream cultcha and then I notice differences..

So (take this in the spirit of this excellent thread) is it required when referring to the "big" fishies in our little mud-puddle sized pond by only their first name?
And to do that exclusively?
What is the sub-texual implications/message intended?

I know when I use first names it is only to others who I also use first name with---those who I know are closer, very much corresponding to the ideas in many other cultures of when you use 'tu" or "du" ---ya know, instead of the more formal 'vous' or 'er' or 'sie' (didya know that the older ME 'thou' was 'du' and 'thee' was the more formal like 'sie' ) so those people are Block, Pastrami, Higgins, Lastage, Richard (even thou I've known Pat since 00) so what is somebody trying to make me understand by using first names---or understand that could be better communicated by last names?

Another thing. I just looked at a short over produced, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much super slooooooooooooooooooooooow motion of Hansen Motorsports in Sweden and it was notable that all the "team" was between 13 and 22/23 years old...
They all look like little children..
What is the message I'm missing?
That is the dreaded "target demographic'" but we all know 13 or 15 or 16 year old kids really are nowhere near mentally developed, and even 22/23 are still seroiusly immature and PROBABLY not mentally toughened, what's the message of virtual children in these vids driving cars costing 1/4 million dollars--espeically with travel and support?

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John Vanlandingham
Sleezattle, WA, USA

Vive le Prole-le-ralliat

www.rallyrace.net/jvab
CALL +1 206 431-9696
Remember! Pacific Standard Time
is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time.

All I know is John must have a pretty good voice to text translator on his computer. I'd spend half my life time typing if I attempted to type as much as he does on the internet.

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Don Kennedy

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fliz

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Creech
Is it possible that Statistics could save Rally?

Looking at Eric's statistics...I hope Yoeman has a strong crash budget this year.


Instead of a rabbit...they should have just had a seeded draw for every stage. Top guys get to make sure they get into the correct order between check-in and the start line.

Perhaps they could "monetize the synergy" and have ALL teams bid in a AUCTION for starting position every stage? Just think of the excitement---behind the scenes shots---personal vignettes---wheeling and dealing and horse tradonmg..
EVERY STAGE
THE DRAMA!

Think of the end of season extended program, the details ,. the Boardroom action!

And the MONEY!!!!!!

all to organizers, of course!

---

John Vanlandingham
Sleezattle, WA, USA

Vive le Prole-le-ralliat

www.rallyrace.net/jvab
CALL +1 206 431-9696
Remember! Pacific Standard Time
is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time.

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john vanlandingham
So (take this in the spirit of this excellent thread) is it required when referring to the "big" fishies in our little mud-puddle sized pond by only their first name?
And to do that exclusively?
What is the sub-texual implications/message intended?

No, it is not required.
It is often not done exclusively. The only ones I ever hear referring to people by their first names are usually the same people that have probably been at every event in the past few years so are on a first name basis with all the crews.
I'm not sure what you mean by sub-texual implications, but the implication is usually, "I am on a first name basis with that person" or "his name sounds too much like pastrami so I'm just gonna call him Travis."

I sometimes use first names even though I KNOW that only like two people will have a clue who I am talking about because it's easier than writing, "a guy I know" or similar.

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Grant Hughes

Quote
Anders Green

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czwalga
Thats why if its someone like yeoman, who is most likely not fast enough to threaten the top of the podium even with the advantage goes first; he's happy, and the 3-4 top guys are also happy cause not one of them have a huge dust advantage.

An interesting outcome I see is a cycle where the only way to get fast enough to be in the seeded draw is to be the rabbit, and you have a great rally and DO get on the podium, which then knocks you back down into the dust.

Doesn't really matter though, angels on the head of a pin. It's a rule that attempts to change the outcome for THE FIRST GUY on the road. It applies to almost no one. I pity the stewards, who are bound to be bombarded with inquiries and protests about how the rabbit should or shouldn't be invoked, by people who will or won't be impacted by it at that particular rally.

Anders

And that's why we serve good beer at our after party, so the Steward's can get wasted and drink their problems away.

However, we have 53 cars to start Friday in Steelville, MO. Yeoman will most likely be first on the road. All this conjecture reminds me of a bunch of infowars junkies sitting around with tin foil hats on, frothing over how illegal the federal reserve is.

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It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favour of vegetarianism, while the wolf remains of a different opinion.
William Ralph Inge

TANSTAAFL



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2014 01:04PM by Vorpal_Rally.

If VSC or whoever brings a car and maintains it, I'll sweep the road and you don't need to score me. Just tell me where to be and when.
Maybe the 0 and 00 and 000 need big spoilers and fans to make a mess as they go thru?

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randyzimmer
If VSC or whoever brings a car and maintains it, I'll sweep the road and you don't need to score me. Just tell me where to be and when.
Maybe the 0 and 00 and 000 need big spoilers and fans to make a mess as they go thru?

I suport this if you bring your entire service crew you have pictured.
(damn youse a smartie, wish I'd thunk of that.)

---

John Vanlandingham
Sleezattle, WA, USA

Vive le Prole-le-ralliat

www.rallyrace.net/jvab
CALL +1 206 431-9696
Remember! Pacific Standard Time
is 3 hours behind Eastern Standard Time.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2014 11:13PM by john vanlandingham.