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Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!

Posted by Anders Green 
EricW
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 02, 2012 09:58PM
Apparently, the new way to save American rallying is to become Canadian.

Guess I need to start liking butter tarts and Molson (which is really just Budweiser anyway).
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 02, 2012 10:22PM
Quote
EricW
Apparently, the new way to save American rallying is to become Canadian.

Guess I need to start liking butter tarts and Molson (which is really just Budweiser anyway).

Well, it ain't so bad up here. Something about "you can lead a horse to water"...

Said it before, and I'll say it again, the states has a population 10x the size of ours, with a higher relative population density, and yet not 10x the competitors. What gives? Sure, you have NASCAR and dirt/asphalt ovals, but yurop has plenty of tracks for the guys with F1 stars in their eyes and rally still gets the attention it deserves. It doesn't add up!
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 02, 2012 11:08PM
Quote
HiTempguy
Quote
EricW
Apparently, the new way to save American rallying is to become Canadian.

Guess I need to start liking butter tarts and Molson (which is really just Budweiser anyway).

Well, it ain't so bad up here. Something about "you can lead a horse to water"...

Said it before, and I'll say it again, the states has a population 10x the size of ours, with a higher relative population density, and yet not 10x the competitors. What gives? Sure, you have NASCAR and dirt/asphalt ovals, but yurop has plenty of tracks for the guys with F1 stars in their eyes and rally still gets the attention it deserves. It doesn't add up!

A key distinction is the population concentration. the majority of the Canadian population is focused in a relatively tight band along the border with the US when compared to the overall land mass.

The US population is spread over a much larger area which prevents the natural condensation of rally interest.
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Anders Green
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 09:59AM
Quote
HiTempguy
Said it before, and I'll say it again, the states has a population 10x the size of ours, with a higher relative population density, and yet not 10x the competitors. What gives? Sure, you have NASCAR and dirt/asphalt ovals, but yurop has plenty of tracks for the guys with F1 stars in their eyes and rally still gets the attention it deserves. It doesn't add up!

I think you may have just answered the question yourself: higher population density.

Canada: 3.7 people/km squared
America: 34.0 people/km squared (38.2 if you ignore Alaska), more than double that of Ontario (14.0 p/km2), Canada's densest province.

I don't claim to know what makes rally work in Canada. My guess is, however, is that our higher population density works against us: more paved roads, more roads made straight instead of curvy. This also means each person lives further and further away from a gravel road. Looking at where the rallies the US does have are, they are almost all in very low density areas.

More detailed analysis would be interesting, but some of the data (average tow distance, for example) I don't think exists for Canada. But I don't know how much point there is to it, because of... Finland. I'm sure their population density story will be very different, but it's because of... _because_!

Like Orkut.com, the social network. No one has ever heard of it. But guess what, it's huge in Brazil. It does pretty well in India too. Why? Even the people who built it aren't sure why. But it caught on, gained users, and became dominant. And the reasons they think it might be popular in Brazil are reasons that it shouldn't be in India. So... mystery!

Cheers,
Anders



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aj_johnson
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 10:12AM
That and we are a PlayStation people who surf couches and have the mechanical inclinations of a squirrel.
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 10:19AM
Now imagine how big rally would be in Canada if only they had trading cards! grinning smiley



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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 10:23AM
We should make SS trading cards... I want to collect the "Jens" and, if I'm lucky, get a "JVL". Maybe even a limited edition "JVL BANNED" card!



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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 10:33AM
MUCH more analysis would be needed to get accurate numbers for this, but just by looking

Percentage of the country's population that is a three hour drive or less from a very unpopulated area, suitable to putting on rallies:

Canada: 90% (guess)
USA: 5% (guess)







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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 01:34PM
so instead of moving to canada, you can live in idaho.



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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 09:05PM
Quote
Anders Green
MUCH more analysis would be needed to get accurate numbers for this, but just by looking

I would agree. However, to your point... you're saying some place like COLORADO would be rally heaven? Amirite?!

spinning smiley sticking its tongue out

Oh god, why did you have to provide the ammo for that Anders? WHY?!

I do agree it's not cut and dry, but then again, there are ideas that the US (generalization here) has NOT tried with all feet in. I like your desire and willingness to try new things with NASA, but is that really the way to grow the sport? Who knows. Is NASA growing? Is it shrinking? Are more events being added? How "strong" are the championships?

Also, while it would kill many people to admit it, Canadians and Americans are (IMO) more similiar than they are different. We have the same kinds of people you do (roundy round and drag racing is HUGE in Canada) and face many of the same obstacles. All of our dirt roads in Alberta are designed for huge oilfield and forestry equipment to go down (smooth, straight, wide open), we have trouble finding roads too. Oh, and said roads are owned by the companies who want nothing to do with the liability associated with racing (generalization). Beyond that, it's not the lack of events that is killing you. If someone wants to rally, they are going to rally. How much they rally will be affected by things like travel distance, tow costs, and time off, but they will at least be out racing in one form or another. Your higher population density should benefit rally, not detract (if looking at a lot of the developed world in comparison). Look at RNY, the tarmac event takes place a little over 1.5 hours (IIRC) from New York City, the largest city (and most dense area) of the US!

A certain individual contacted me about how Canadian rallying works. I told them to talk to Keith. I think the club structure is something that would work FOR the benefit of rallyists in the US, as well as events/organizations being not-for-profit, Keith has painted the picture well enough. Why there would be profit to be made at a volunteer ran event is beyond me (that doesn't go back into the event), but I digress. I know the SCCA left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, but that is the SCCA's fault, not the system that was utilized (and still, afaik, for profit).

Edit-
And I'm not saying you guys are doing it wrong... but to say that it is simply your culture/country that causes there to be a disproportionally small rally community is being dishonest IMO. I find it VERY hard to accept that as with many things, the US is "different", just because it's the US. Does the US even have DOUBLE the unique competitors Canada has? You said there were 27 (29?) events last year in the US. Canada had 17 (marth may be bad here), and there are no events in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, PEI, or the territories.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2012 09:30PM by HiTempguy.
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 03, 2012 10:25PM
Quote
Anders Green
We should make SS trading cards... I want to collect the "Jens" and, if I'm lucky, get a "JVL". Maybe even a limited edition "JVL BANNED" card!

Need a make your own rally trading card app Anders. Waiting . . .



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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 04, 2012 09:29AM
Quote
HiTempguy
I would agree. However, to your point... you're saying some place like COLORADO would be rally heaven? Amirite?!

spinning smiley sticking its tongue out

Oh god, why did you have to provide the ammo for that Anders? WHY?!

Ha! The ammo is there because it's there. smiling smiley I can't claim to know something when I'm just guessing and pondering. I know other folks don't have the same compulsion. winking smiley

And yeah, Colorado _does_ have some good geographical features that say it should work. _Should_. sad smiley

Quote

I do agree it's not cut and dry, but then again, there are ideas that the US (generalization here) has NOT tried with all feet in. I like your desire and willingness to try new things with NASA, but is that really the way to grow the sport? Who knows. Is NASA growing? Is it shrinking? Are more events being added? How "strong" are the championships?

NRS, like every rally organization in the US, had fewer entries in 2011 than in 2010. Our drop was about 4%. 0ther organizations dropped about 13%. So I'd say that we're doing just fine, especially in that we're still the ones that are in the black every year.

I feel that trying new things is what you _have_ to do. Some things will work, some won't. The alternative (try nothing) doesn't seem like a responsible path.

As far as all feet in, phew... well, we can only do what we can do. To get other people to cooperate with one's ideas when they have their own agendas is difficult. Lord knows we've offered. I've offered cheaper insurance, scoring technology, pr information, a tarmac event for their championship... all turned down. That doesn't mean I shouldn't forge ahead with my own ideas of what might work... in fact, it means that I _have_ to, since other people won't.

Quote

Look at RNY, the tarmac event takes place a little over 1.5 hours (IIRC) from New York City, the largest city (and most dense area) of the US!
Yup, and they unfortunately had to cancel an event last year due to not enough people signing up. The world is full of complexity, nuance, and unexplainable phenomena. smiling smiley

Quote

the club structure is something that would work FOR the benefit of rallyists in the US, as well as events/organizations being not-for-profit,
The club structure _would_ be good. Now, just get someone to do it! smiling smiley

profit/non-profit/not-for-profit... It doesn't make much difference. The events still need to try to make as much money as they can, to build a buffer against things that go wrong, replace equipment, whatever. Like, we had a surprise $5,000 bill for busted chicanes at RTN one year. And in 6 years of organizing rallies, no sponsor or advertiser I've dealt with has made a decision based on the tax status. Not-for-profit/non-profit _does_ mean more paperwork/expense come tax time though. Nothing is a magic bullet: the CEO for the non-profit Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation made $417,171 in 2010. eye popping smiley

Quote

Does the US even have DOUBLE the unique competitors Canada has?

Probably not. Does CARS (or anyone) even have an accurate number on the driver count? They could get a person count from the licenses sold, but they don't sell separate driver/nav licenses, do they? I usually look at driver count as the core number since it corresponds more directly to the number of cars and entries in a year.

Cheers,
Anders



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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/04/2012 09:37AM by Anders Green.
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 04, 2012 11:50AM
Quote
Anders Green
Quote
HiTempguy
Said it before, and I'll say it again, the states has a population 10x the size of ours, with a higher relative population density, and yet not 10x the competitors. What gives? Sure, you have NASCAR and dirt/asphalt ovals, but yurop has plenty of tracks for the guys with F1 stars in their eyes and rally still gets the attention it deserves. It doesn't add up!

I think you may have just answered the question yourself: higher population density.

Canada: 3.7 people/km squared
America: 34.0 people/km squared (38.2 if you ignore Alaska), more than double that of Ontario (14.0 p/km2), Canada's densest province.

I don't claim to know what makes rally work in Canada. My guess is, however, is that our higher population density works against us: more paved roads, more roads made straight instead of curvy. This also means each person lives further and further away from a gravel road. Looking at where the rallies the US does have are, they are almost all in very low density areas.

More detailed analysis would be interesting, but some of the data (average tow distance, for example) I don't think exists for Canada. But I don't know how much point there is to it, because of... Finland. I'm sure their population density story will be very different, but it's because of... _because_!

Like Orkut.com, the social network. No one has ever heard of it. But guess what, it's huge in Brazil. It does pretty well in India too. Why? Even the people who built it aren't sure why. But it caught on, gained users, and became dominant. And the reasons they think it might be popular in Brazil are reasons that it shouldn't be in India. So... mystery!

Cheers,
Anders


pretty well said. I dont even know of a suitable 'rally type' road I could go practice (if it were legal winking smiley) within an hours drive of me. I'm sure there are some out there but I havent found them.

Lets be honest, a lot of rally drivers in Canada probably were tearing ass down a gravel road when they turned 16 in their parents car. As anything it progresses into something more.
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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 04, 2012 11:54AM
Quote
HiTempguy
I would agree. However, to your point... you're saying some place like COLORADO would be rally heaven? Amirite?!

Colorado would be a rally heaven if we had support from the forest service. You could run 500 unique stage miles without a single house on stage within 90 miles of Denver if we had forest service support. As it is, it's heaven for motorcycles, sno mobiles, and jeeps. With motos and sleds, the forest service has zero interest in even considering allowing us into the forest and bringing down more hate from the environmentalists. It won't be long that those recreational activities are no longer allowed as well. With 50% average snow pack and already had one big fire that destroyed a bunch of homes and killed three people 2012 is going to be a killer year. Let one fire start due to motorized recreational equipment and burn a few tens of thousands of acres and that'll be the end of motorized recreation.
The three prospects I have for future events are 100, 200, and 400 miles from Denver.



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Re: Oooo! The next "this will save rally" is almost here!
April 04, 2012 02:22PM
Quote
Anders Green

Probably not. Does CARS (or anyone) even have an accurate number on the driver count? They could get a person count from the licenses sold, but they don't sell separate driver/nav licenses, do they? I usually look at driver count as the core number since it corresponds more directly to the number of cars and entries in a year.

Cheers,
Anders

CARS does sell seperate driver/nav licences. Terry Epp stated that there were just over 400 unique drivers last year (unless he meant licences overall, but I swear I asked him to clarify and he said drivers... Keith, as always, knows the actual answer), an all time low in well over a decade by his understanding. He (Terry) is convinced rally is dieing as well, so your not alone North of the border on your stance with this subject winking smiley I argue that the competitors we are keeping are more likely in it for the long haul/are "strong" competitors, but that would require some actual number crunching to verify.

By the way, this discussion is really great, I appreciate being able to hear (and hopefully understand) better the issues facing rally in North America. I think we are in agreeance Anders on that sometimes the WHY is just nowhere to be found. Again, we've had great growth, even during the recession it wasn't bad compared to 1999-2001, whereas SCCA prorally was (IMO, from what I've found and read, Maine 2000 had almost 100 entries?!) booming with large entries at lots of events. I'm trying to figure out WHY we've seen the growth we have, and as far as I can tell, a lot seems to be word of mouth.

Grant, that is a really unfortunate situation you face, government agencies can be terrible to deal with. However, an event 100 miles (or even 200 miles) out of Denver isn't so bad! Just means you have to wake up a bit earlier in the morning to head out winking smiley
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